Chaos & Confusion: How The U.S Exit May Have Led To The Taliban Winning The War…

There is chaos in Afghanistan. What could happen to the country in the future is a question we all have in our mind.

On Sunday, the Taliban edged closer to solidifying control of Afghanistan after former President Ashraf Ghani fled the country. According to a Reuters report, Taliban negotiators have headed to the presidential palace for a ‘peaceful transition of power’. Apart from this, early Sunday, two sources told CNN that the plan was to pull all US personnel from the embassy in Kabul over the next 72 hours. Meanwhile, hours later, it was said that most US embassy staff had been moved to the Kabul airport for flights out of the country. The U.S. flag is no longer flying over the building.

At the time we were writing this article, Kabul airport was closed for commercial flights. The suspension of commercial flights have cut off one of the last avenues to escape the country for Afghans fearful of the Taliban rule. From what you have read so far, you can understand that there is chaos everywhere in Afghanistan right now, but what happened?

How Did We Get Here?

On April 14, U.S. President Joe Biden said that the U.S. troops will withdraw from Afghanistan from May 1, thus ending the two-decades long war. Biden’s decision was criticised because many said that the Taliban might take over the country after the U.S. troops pull out. However, Biden defended his Afghanistan pull-out by saying, as mentioned by Bloomberg, “the likelihood there’s going to be the Taliban overrunning everything and owning the whole country is highly unlikely.” But the current events show how wrong Biden’s prediction has been.

On May 4, Taliban fighters launched a major offensive in southern Helmand province. Then, on July 21, the Taliban controlled about half of the country’s districts, said a senior U.S. official. On August 6, Zaranj became the first provincial capital to fall to the Taliban in a year. On August 13, four more provincial capitals fell in a day, including Kandahar. The next day, the Taliban took the major city of Mazar-i-Sharif. On Sunday, the Taliban took Jalalabad, surrounding Kabul.

The Unexpected

When Biden said that the U.S. military mission in Afghanistan will end by August 31 this year, we all thought that it is high time someone ended the ‘forever war’. But, now we can see how the administration has highly miscalculated the Taliban’s ability to take over the country. On Sunday, U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said, as mentioned by Bloomberg, “Nobody wants Afghanistan, once again, to be a breeding ground for terror.” He added, “It’s fair to say the U.S. decision to pull out has accelerated things.”

Dozens of countries issued a joint statement on Monday calling “those in positions of power and authority across Afghanistan” to allow Afghans, and foreigners to depart safely if they wish, to keep the borders open and maintain calm, writes, Bloomberg. Even though one can say that there is little to be gained by continuing the war in Afghanistan, many are saying that the U.S. should have planned the withdrawal of the troops in a better way.

The Dilemma

The Afghanistan war is a sensitive subject, with some saying that the U.S. shouldn’t have put its troops in a foreign country, while some say that the U.S. shouldn’t have pulled out the troops. We can understand why some think that the war was unnecessary because it led to the loss of thousands of human lives, and wastage of billions of dollars.

Since the U.S. invaded the Afghanistan in 2001, there have been more than 3,500 coalition deaths, of which over 2,300 have been U.S. soldiers. More than 450 UK troops have died during the war. A further 20,660 U.S. soldiers have been injured in action. According to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (Unama), nearly 111,000 civilians have been killed or injured since it started systematically recording civilian casualties in 2009. According to a Brown University study in 2019, which has looked at war spending in both Afghanistan and Pakistan, the U.S. had spent about $978 billion (their estimate also includes money allocated for the 2020 fiscal year). The UK spent an estimated $30 billion, while Germany has spent around $19 billion over the course of the war.

The U.S. and its allies have spent a lot of money, and sacrificed a lot of human lives. So, it made sense when Biden said that they want to end the ‘forever war’, because the war has gone for too long, with little benefits coming out of it. But, we can see how the pull-out of the troops has given the Taliban a leg up, and that is just the beginning.

According to a Senate aide briefed on the comments, as mentioned by CNN, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley said that terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda could reconstitute in Afghanistan sooner than the two years defence officials had previously estimated to Congress because of the recent, quick Taliban takeover of the country. The situation could result in an increasing counterterrorism threat, just as the 20th anniversary of the September 11, 2001, Al-Qaeda attacks approaches.

Human-rights groups told WION that Taliban commanders have demanded that communities turn over unmarried women to become “wives” for their fighters — a form of sexual violence. The presence of foreign military has helped open up more space for girls and women, but, now, the Taliban’s rule will be menacing, especially for them.

In The End

This experiment by the U.S. has failed, but this isn’t Biden’s fault alone. Michael R. Bloomberg for Bloomberg Opinion writes, “Under both George W. Bush and Barack Obama, its mission was marred by mismanagement, cultural naïveté and recurring strategic missteps. The misguided deal that Donald Trump struck with the Taliban last year, in which he ignored the Afghan government while effectively surrendering America’s leverage, was only the nail in the coffin.”

Now, the decision has been made, and the Taliban may soon completely capture the country. So, what can the U.S. do now? They should expedite the efforts to evacuate the Afghans who worked for the U.S. Biden should also take stringent measures to control the Taliban. If extremist groups re-emerge in Afghanistan, the U.S. should nip them in the bud. Otherwise, something similar to the 9/11 might happen, and we don’t want that.

However, the U.S.’ miscalculation on handling the Taliban crisis in Afghanistan will be talked by many for years to come. Katherine Zimmerman, a fellow in foreign and defence policy at the American Enterprise Institute, said in a Bloomberg Television interview, as mentioned by Bloomberg, “I think it’s quite clear that the Taliban have won this war.” Katherine added, “They took 20 years to do it, and they have proven that their strategy of patience will outlast the U.S.”

It is hard to think about the Taliban winning the war in Afghanistan, but if we think about how quickly they captured most of Afghanistan in a short period of time, overturning the government, shows who the clear winner of the ‘forever war’ is. With no foreign force to keep the Taliban in check, we might see an up tick in terrorism activities, not only in Afghanistan, but all around the world.

The U.S. wanted to end the war, and brings its troops home, and now begins the bigger problems — How can the U.S. control terrorism when it no longer has control over the country where terrorist groups operate from? We have many questions, and so does the Afghans, and Americans stuck in Afghanistan, and we are all waiting for Biden to come up with a detailed plan to help the country through this chaos.